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New market forecasts from Mintel predict cosmetic sales in the United States will rise as a result of the recession. Moreover, market research firm expects a higher growth rate for makeup now than it did only eight months ago (10 percent over the next five years, instead of 7 percent).
Mintel’s re-forecasting of previously published research reports has uncovered which beauty and personal care markets are recession-proof and which ones are being spurred by the weak economy. Though the beauty and personal care sector is struggling overall, the company sees some very bright spots, including the color cosmetics segment.
“[M]any women have a deep emotional tie to their appearance, so cosmetics are a non-negotiable,” noted Joan Holleran, director of research at Chicago-based Mintel. “These women may trade down on other purchases or forgo expensive vacations, but they will still treat themselves to small, feel-good luxuries like makeup and beauty products.”
Holleran points to another segment that is expected to emerge in good shape from the recession: anti-aging beauty. Mintel anticipates sales of anti-aging skin care products to grow 20 percent over the next five years. One year ago, Mintel forecast 44 percent five-year growth, but the adjusted market forecast is significant given the current economic climate.
The company further predicts healthy growth for sun care products, with sales expected to increase 36 percent from 2008 to 2013. Although this is a slight decline from Mintel’s original market forecast of 41 percent growth, it still shows that people are continuing to follow dermatologists’ advice to use sunscreen every day.
Though the cosmetic, anti-aging and sun care markets should stay strong throughout the recession, other beauty and personal care markets may falter. “Shoppers are trading down to save money on purchases they don’t deem necessary,” explained Holleran. “So everything beyond deodorant, shampoo and razors is at risk,” “Personal care companies need to focus on value, feel-good benefits and new product innovation to keep shoppers interested.”
Mintel has re-forecasted all of its Oxygen reports from 2007 and 2008 because of the unprecedented economic changes of the past year. The company decided to do this for the first time so that its consumer, market and trend reports would more accurately reflect market expectations in the next five years.
Each re-forecasted Mintel Oxygen report maintains its original market size predictions, so readers can see the recession's true impact on their markets. For more information, contact Joanna Peot at [email protected].