There’s no question that shoppers are more concerned about rising food prices than they have been in decades. Surveys abound that report more people are cooking at home, using coupons, shopping for specials, and, yes, even stockpiling certain foods.

Hardly an hour goes by where some television news program isn’t offering hints on how to save money on groceries. Couple that with the hundreds of thousands of recent online postings on the topic, and you would surmise that shoppers now have the tools to win the war on higher prices. But that isn’t so.

One of the key differences between this time of higher food costs and others that we’ve experienced over the past 50 years is that, in my opinion, the prices won’t come back down. The world has changed.



Our water is being threatened in both supply and quality. There’s less land for agriculture to grow our foods. Our energy resources are more expensive, and long-term supply is tenuous at best. The U.S. economy is weak, and our reliance on imported foods is growing.

Channel hopping on the rise
At store level, we’re seeing more channel hopping than ever before, even with gasoline prices soaring towards $4.50 a gallon, more shoppers heading toward the frozen and canned aisles, and dollars shifting to store brands. It will be interesting to watch how retailers decide to promote their own brands now that so many have reformulated to meet or exceed the leading brands’ quality. There’s a fine balance between promoting price and quality—which makes the case for extensive store-brand sampling efforts.

At risk are the higher-priced convenience food and 100-calorie pack categories, as well as “healthier” (read more expensive) foods in general. When people are nervous, they tend to gravitate toward more sugar and fat—or, to be more politically correct, “comfort foods.”



This all makes me wonder just what the trends are going to be around the barbecue this summer.

I have no doubt that we will (and should) see fewer individual bottles of water, in favor of gallon jugs, either store-bought or filled at home. Disposable plates, cups, and utensils should give way to the real, reusable things.

Most importantly, heading to the retailers that are known for great quality and prices on beef, chicken, and fish, like Costco, will be the rule.

Just last week I had the occasion to stop at a Fresh & Easy in Palm Desert, Calif. A large sign in the parking lot offered steaks at less than $3 per pound, no doubt an effort to combat the beginning of the steep business decline that’s the norm in the desert in the summer.



Being one of the retail pundits that actually finds the Tesco model to be smart and on trend, I was elated to see the store busy. It was 3 p.m. on a 105-degree Saturday, and shopping the aisles, I counted at least 20 people. Some had carry baskets with a few items, while others navigated full shopping carts.

Crucial “eavesdropping”
Eavesdropping in supermarkets is my business, and this trip provided much fodder. There was little doubt that these shoppers weren’t new to Fresh & Easy; they knew the store and were doing their regular shopping. No “oohs” and “aahs” or discoveries—just the quest for everyday value for their families.

It’s critical for both retailers and CPG brands to listen carefully to what shoppers are saying about value and the reality of drastically increasing prices. Nielsen Online’s recent report on the “buzz” in reaction to rising grocery prices in April 2008 sheds new light on just how to capture intelligence and learn from consumers.



The report noted, “In only a few instances did consumers mention trying to specifically reduce the number of shopping trips to save on gas.” Nielsen Online goes on to observe that consumers are “more likely to mention purchasing grocery products on promotion and store sales than any other shopping strategy.” In fact, this was mentioned by nearly one-third.

What I find interesting about this report is that it’s not a survey with responses betraying the inherent prejudices (good or bad) of the respondents trying to give the “right” answers. Rather, it’s just “eavesdropping” on what real people are posting on hundreds of message boards and blogs, including MommySavers.com, HGTV.com, WeightWatchers.com, and 3fatchicks.com.

There has never been a better opportunity for supermarkets to build a strong relationship with their current and potential shoppers than there is today. Everyone, regardless of income or status, is looking for value. It’s time for us to pull out the brilliant marketing ideas: sampling store brands, adding money-saving tips to circulars and Web sites, and adding in-store tours that teach shoppers how to save money by creating a shopping list, using coupons and frequent shopper cards, and shopping the entire store, especially the frozen and canned foods aisles.

Maybe this isn’t so brilliant, but just basic common sense.